Assessment of The Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Change on Human-Wildlife Conflict in Mukogodo Landscape, Laikipia County, Kenya

Abstract

Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) change is a global phenomenon with far-reaching implications for ecosystems, biodiversity, and human–wildlife interactions. Across East Africa, rapid agricultural expansion, settlement growth, and rising human and livestock populations have intensified Human–Wildlife Conflict (HWC), already one of the most pressing conservation and livelihood challenges. The Mukogodo Landscape in Laikipia County, Kenya, provides an ideal setting to examine how landscape transformations between 2009 and 2024 influence conflict patterns. These changes, driven by agricultural expansion, population pressure, and habitat fragmentation, have heightened HWC manifested in crop raids, livestock predation, infrastructure damage, human injuries, and even deaths—threatening both biodiversity and community wellbeing. Guided by three specific objectives, (1) to map the extent of LULC changes in Mukogodo Landscape between 2009 and 2024; (2) to assess the correlation between these LULC changes and the frequency of HWC incidents; and (3) to evaluate existing land management and conflict mitigation strategies and recommend sustainable management approaches for reducing HWC. This study employed a mixed-methods approach, integrating geospatial analysis of Landsat imagery with qualitative data from 98 household surveys, key informant interviews, and focus group discussions. Spatial mapping revealed a 48.3 km2 increase in human impact zones and a 27.0 km2 decline in forest cover between 2019 and 2024, with elephants responsible for 75.9% of the 3,112 recorded HWC incidents. Kernel Density Estimation and Global Moran’s I (0.617, p < 0.001) confirmed spatial clustering of conflict hotspots around settlement clusters and degraded habitats. Regression analysis showed a strong negative correlation between forest cover and HWC (r = – 0.93), while seasonal variation analysis identified the cool & dry season as the peak conflict period. Social surveys further revealed that community members perceive HWC as increasingly severe, particularly regarding property destruction and livestock losses, and express limited confidence in existing mitigation strategies such as fencing and compensation. Based on these findings, the study recommends: ecosystem-based land use planning incorporating designated zones of interaction that balance human livelihoods with wildlife needs and protection and restoration of degraded forests, grasslands, and critical wildlife corridors (particularly elephant migratory routes). The findings underscore the combined influence of LULC change and climate variability in shaping conflict dynamics and highlight the socio-ecological complexity of managing coexistence in arid and semi-arid landscapes. Outputs from this research, including LULC maps, statistical models, and policy recommendations provide actionable insights for sustainable land management and conflict reduction. By linking ecological change with community perspectives, the study contributes to broader efforts to manage HWC and supports the design of integrated conservation and development strategies for the Mukogodo region and beyond.