| dc.description.abstract | Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) change is a global phenomenon with far-reaching implications
for ecosystems, biodiversity, and human–wildlife interactions. Across East Africa, rapid
agricultural expansion, settlement growth, and rising human and livestock populations have
intensified Human–Wildlife Conflict (HWC), already one of the most pressing conservation and
livelihood challenges. The Mukogodo Landscape in Laikipia County, Kenya, provides an ideal
setting to examine how landscape transformations between 2009 and 2024 influence conflict
patterns. These changes, driven by agricultural expansion, population pressure, and habitat
fragmentation, have heightened HWC manifested in crop raids, livestock predation, infrastructure
damage, human injuries, and even deaths—threatening both biodiversity and community
wellbeing. Guided by three specific objectives, (1) to map the extent of LULC changes in
Mukogodo Landscape between 2009 and 2024; (2) to assess the correlation between these LULC
changes and the frequency of HWC incidents; and (3) to evaluate existing land management and
conflict mitigation strategies and recommend sustainable management approaches for reducing
HWC. This study employed a mixed-methods approach, integrating geospatial analysis of Landsat
imagery with qualitative data from 98 household surveys, key informant interviews, and focus
group discussions. Spatial mapping revealed a 48.3 km2 increase in human impact zones and a
27.0 km2 decline in forest cover between 2019 and 2024, with elephants responsible for 75.9% of
the 3,112 recorded HWC incidents. Kernel Density Estimation and Global Moran’s I (0.617, p <
0.001) confirmed spatial clustering of conflict hotspots around settlement clusters and degraded
habitats. Regression analysis showed a strong negative correlation between forest cover and HWC
(r = – 0.93), while seasonal variation analysis identified the cool & dry season as the peak conflict
period. Social surveys further revealed that community members perceive HWC as increasingly
severe, particularly regarding property destruction and livestock losses, and express limited
confidence in existing mitigation strategies such as fencing and compensation. Based on these
findings, the study recommends: ecosystem-based land use planning incorporating designated
zones of interaction that balance human livelihoods with wildlife needs and protection and
restoration of degraded forests, grasslands, and critical wildlife corridors (particularly elephant
migratory routes). The findings underscore the combined influence of LULC change and climate
variability in shaping conflict dynamics and highlight the socio-ecological complexity of
managing coexistence in arid and semi-arid landscapes. Outputs from this research, including
LULC maps, statistical models, and policy recommendations provide actionable insights for
sustainable land management and conflict reduction. By linking ecological change with
community perspectives, the study contributes to broader efforts to manage HWC and supports
the design of integrated conservation and development strategies for the Mukogodo region and
beyond. | en_US |
