Effect of Drug-Related Crime, Gang Violence, and Petty Theft on Community Cohesion in Kibra Sub-County, Nairobi County, Kenya: The Mediating Effect of Fear of Crime

Abstract

Urban crime is a persistent challenge in informal settlements as it undermines social structures and threatens community resilience. This study investigated the effects of drug-related crime, gang violence, petty theft on community cohesion in Kibra Sub-County, Nairobi County. The study was guided by the following research objectives; to determine the effects of drug-related crime on community cohesion; to examine the effects of gang violence on community cohesion; to assess the effects of petty theft on community cohesion; and to establish the mediating effect of fear of crime on the relationship between selected urban crimes and community cohesion among residents of Kibra Sub-County, Nairobi County. The study was guided by the Collective Efficacy Theory and the Social Disorganization Theory. It adopted a convergent research design with a parallel database variant. A random sample of 396 respondents was drawn from a study population consisting of 185,777 residents of Kibra Sub-County and 18 key respondents were selected purposively. Data was collected through semi-structured questionnaires and semi-structured interview guide. Instrument validity was ensured through content validity and construct validity assessed using factor analysis, the Kaiser–Meyer–Olkin (KMO) measure, and Bartlett’s Test of Sphericity, while reliability was tested using Cronbach’s alpha. Qualitative trustworthiness was established through member checking. Quantitative data were analyzed using SPSS version 26 to obtain descriptive and inferential statistics. The study hypotheses were tested using multiple and hierarchical regression analysis. Qualitative data were analyzed thematically and presented in the form of narratives and direct quotes. Data was merged at the interpretation stage. Ethical consideration was maintained throughout the research process. From the findings, the overall multiple regression model was statistically significant, F (3, 334) = 14.643, p < .001, with R = .341 and R² = .116, indicating that the drug-related crime, gang violence, petty theft jointly explains 11.6% of the variance in community cohesion. At the individual level, drug-related crime (β = .069, p = .432), gang violence (β = .127, p = .186), and petty theft (β = .171, p = .077) did not significantly predict community cohesion. However, hierarchical regression analysis revealed that all three crime variables significantly predicted fear of crime drug-related crime (β = .19, p < .001), gang violence (β = .19, p < .001), and petty theft (β = .50, p < .001), while fear of crime significantly predicted community cohesion (β = .28, p < .001). The inclusion of fear of crime in the model increased the explained variance in community cohesion from 12% to 14% (R² change = .02), confirming a significant mediating effect. The study therefore concluded that urban crimes influence community cohesion indirectly through fear of crime. Based on these findings, the study recommends adopting integrated interventions that address both crime and fear of crime, including community based and intelligence led crime prevention strategies, youth focused employment and rehabilitation programs, and environmental design improvements to reduce everyday insecurity. The study further recommends institutionalizing structured community police engagement forums, strengthening community policing, and implementing public reassurance and awareness initiatives aimed at reducing fear, rebuilding trust, and enhancing community participation. There is need for further studies on comparative analyses across different informal settlements and incorporate perspectives from residents, community leaders, and security actors