Monitoring and evaluation strategies and performance of conflict prevention programs in Africa

Abstract

This study sought to investigate the effect of the monitoring and evaluation strategies and the performance of conflict prevention programs in Africa taking as a case the Continental Early Warning System (CEWS) of the African Union (AU). The study was based on three objectives: to assess the extent to which Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) influence the performance of conflict prevention programs, to examine the influence of stakeholder engagement on the performance of conflict prevention programs, and to establish how integration of conflict-sensitive strategies in M&E influences the performance of conflict prevention programs. The theoretical framework covered the theory of change and stakeholder theory. The study adopted a descriptive survey design to understand the research variables in-depth and make informed recommendations. The research site for the study is Addis Ababa, Ethiopia as the seat of the Continental Early Warning System (CEWS) of the African Union. The target population of 125 comprising staff members of the Political Affairs Peace and Security (PAPS) and the Regional Economic Communities (RECs) working and supporting conflict prevention programs of CEWS was considered. The sample size of the study calculated by using the Krejcie & Morgan table is 95. The researcher used questionnaires to gather the required information by drop-off and pick-up method as well as mailed surveys depending on the convenience. The research questionnaire was tested for consistency to correct inconsistencies. Further, Cronbach’s alpha coefficient has been used to estimate instrument reliability using the pilot responses, and it returned 0.801, which is fairly high. Once the required data was collected after securing authorization from the relevant bodies, the data was analyzed using SPSS version 29. After the finalization of the data collection, analysis of the data was made using means and standard deviations to assess the central tendencies and dispersion of the data. The study’s results revealed alignments with findings as well as discrepancies with prior studies. It emphasized the importance of Key Performance Indicators (KPIs), stressing the need for alignment with strategic goals and the establishment of baseline and targets. A thorough stakeholder analysis involving internal and external stakeholders, as well as clear roles and responsibilities, were deemed crucial. Additionally, the study highlighted the significance of conflict-sensitive M&E practice, along with detailed context analysis. The study recommended the development of clear and measurable KPIs, the establishment of baseline and targets, with participation from both internal and external stakeholders, and prioritizing the integration of conflict-sensitive practice to address challenges and enhance the effectiveness of conflict prevention programs in Africa.