Impact of Climate Variability on Households’ AdaptiveCapacity and Adaptive Strategies in Maasai Pastoralist Communities in Magadi Division of Kajiado County, Kenya

Abstract

Every corner of the world is already experiencing climate change, and the situation will worsen unless greenhouse gas emissions are reduced and adaptation measures are implemented. As a result, it is necessary to quantify the degree of variation and change in climate and the adaptive capacity of households and identify the potential effective adaptive strategies to buffer against climatic impacts. The goal of this study therefore, is to quantify the level of variation and change in climate, adaptive capacity of the households and the effective adaptive strategies for dealing with climate impacts of Maasai pastoral households in Magadi division of Kajiado County. The specific objectives of the study were to: (i) determine the characteristics of Maasai pastoral households, (ii) assess the level of climate variation and change, (iii) determine the adaptive capacity to climate variability and change of Maasai pastoral households, (iv) evaluate the adaptive strategies to climate variation and change undertaken by Maasai pastoral households in Magadi division of Kajiado County. This study used a mixed-methods research design. Primary data were collected through household surveys, key informant interviews, focus group discussion reports, archival documents, and journals as secondary data sources. A structured questionnaire was used to survey a stratified proportional random sample of 366 households. Thirty-four (34) key informant interviews were conducted on purposely selected respondents based on their knowledge on climate variation and change in the study area. Four Focus Group Discussions of ten (10) participants each were conducted within the four different locations in the study area to triangulate the information from the household survey. Descriptive (mean, median, mode, and frequency distributions) and inferential statistics (regression analysis, ANOVA, Chi-square, t-test) were used to analyze the collected data. Statistical tests were performed at a 5% level of significance. Data were analyzed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (IBM SPSS version 26) statistical software. The level climate variability was found to be high, with a coefficient of variation (CV) of 35.4 and negative standardized precipitation index (SPI) in 17 years. Climate change based on long term rainfall trends was found to be on a decreasing trend. The Maasai pastoralists perceived the level of climate variability and change to be high (M = 3.97, SD = .204) on a scale of 1 to 5. There were no statistically significant (t=3.378, df 364, p=.059) differences between the male and female household heads in their rating of climate variability. The level of adaptive capacity to climate variation and change among the Maasai pastoral households was found to be moderate (M=2.55, SD=1.156). There were no statistically significant differences (t=1.688, df 364, p=.092) between the male and female headed households. The nature based adaptive strategies to climate impacts that were recommended included: forage preservation, ranked (M=3.94, SD=1.12) on a scale of 1-5; pasture restoration with enclosures, ranked (M=3.91, SD=1.11). while the non-nature based solutions to climate risks included: diversification to non-livestock livelihoods, ranked (M = 4.17, SD = .99); training on the climate mitigation measures (M = 3.88, SD = 1.38). The findings from the study will influence policy development in implementing climate variation and change adaptive and mitigating measures in Kajiado County.